Race 4 at Clairefontaine this afternoon is a conditions race for three-year-olds over the right-handed mile at Clairefontaine.
7/4 favourite Nikovo represents Andre Fabre but I think he’s underpriced and makes this a good betting heat. Winner of a schooling race by half the Chantilly polytrack in March, he held Classic entries but only got off the mark on the third attempt at Compiegne last time out over nine furlongs.
He’s by Kingman but has no ground concerns today, where the going is given as good to soft.
Without going into too much detail, the bare form of his maiden win puts him at least 3kg or 4kg behind my selection in terms of ratings and he’s certainly vulnerable to one dropping in grade into this Classe 2 event. Nikovo’s official rating of 41.0 looks very optimistic to me at this stage of his career.
4-1 Chantarella and 11/2 Silver Lining have similar profiles and both have plausible chances. I might be interested at longer prices but they are both well found in the market this morning.
By contrast, I think Tim Donworth’s stable star Allada is a really big price at 7-1 with all bookmakers, dropping in grade here. 5th in the Group Three Prix Penelope on her return, she could only manage fourth on her next start when sent off a short price at Lyon-Parilly, but that could have been a Listed race – the 1-2 both ran in the Group One Prix Saint-Alary on their next starts.
Allada’s pedigree screams 10-12 furlongs so it’s interesting that connections drop back to a mile here. She likes to race handily so I think they might try to make all of the running from stall two. Looking at both starts this year, it’s possible she just didn’t quite stay the 10 furlongs as expected and she may have been put off last time when jumping the path at Lyon.
Allada looks a great bet under Maxime Guyon this afternoon and I’d be surprised if she couldn’t at least place.
1.50pm Clairefontaine – Allada 1.5pt each-way @ 7-1 (William Hill, Fitzdares, Paddy Power, Quinn Bet etc. or 15/2 with Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes, VirginBet and LiveScoreBet)
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