Race Four is a claimer at Clairefontaine where I genuinely think only three of the six runners can possibly win.
Tirso de Molina had a good chance at Dax last time and drops from a €14,000 tag to €11,000 today. He is one of the three possible winners but would be the outsider of three in my market. Morning favourite Jah Work is priced at 6/5 and although he receives weight all round, he remains a bit of a hopeless maiden that was beaten six lengths in claiming company last time.
The Hickst stable had a 33-1 winner at Deauville yesterday and I like the chances of raider Malekan here. Like the favourite, he was beaten six lengths last time but it appeared much warmer company at Bad Harzburg – the winner followed up in a Listed race. A winner at Cologne before that, he really should be winning this and rates as a confident bet at 5/2 this morning.
2.25pm Clairefontaine – 2pt win Malekan 5/2 (all firms)
35 minutes later the company is quite a bit warmer! 5/2 shot Karcalla was an impressive winner of her maiden at this course but I’m not wild about Reliable Man’s progeny in general. Godolphin’s Nano Nagle is another chance and at one point had been described as Henri-Alex Pantall’s best three-year-old, but her form with the likes of Anobe suggests that her rating of 42.0 might still be a bit optimistic.
Juddmonte’s Pervade ran a good race in a Royal Ascot handicap and the fact he travelled over suggests that Francis-Henri Graffard thinks quite a bit of him. He looked like he might do even better than 5th but perhaps his stamina emptied out. The drop back to a mile looks in his favour and he should go close in this event.
3.00pm Clairefontaine – 1pt win Pervade 5/2 (Coral, Betfred, Sport Nation, Livescorebet, Virgin Bet or 9/4 generally)
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