Race 1 at Dieppe won’t take a lot of winning. Favourite El Pro is a 6-race maiden and doesn’t look to be improving. His French rating of 36.5 would normally be good enough to win a race of this type but I question whether he’s been running to that level in his last two defeats. His trainer did have a winner in the provinces yesterday but his strike rate of 10% is worse that the previous two years. They’ll just be looking to pick up a bad race with him and the fact they aren’t handicapping with him suggests they may share my view on his rating.
Also priced at 2-1, Caregiver has been off the track since he made a pleasing start in May, finishing 2nd to the subsequent stakes-placed Goliath. He’s cheaply-bred, represents a stable that was established this year and has saddled only 2 winners to date. I can only assume he had a setback so he can also be passed over.
My selection Sheradann finished a length behind El Pro when last seen and to me it looks like he was given an educational ride at Clairefontaine, finishing a length off 3rd (sounds better than 6th, doesn’t it?). He clocked the fastest final 600m in that race and has the best pedigree here. His dam was a multiple Group winner and a few of her progeny took 2 or 3 runs to shed their maiden tag.
At 5-1, he doesn’t have to step forward a lot to win this race, has a plum draw in 1 and a more aggressive rider on today, Barzalona, who will be hungry – this being his first public ride following a 10-day holiday. He rates as a great each-way bet as 14 of connections’ past 21 runners from the barn have finished in the first three. Currently trading at 3.9 on the local tote, this morning looks the time to back him here in the UK.
Eye In The Sky may also get involved but judging by trainer quotes, connections already have an eye on handicaps.
12.48pm Dieppe – 1.5pt each-way Sheradann @ 5-1 (all firms)