A couple catch my eye on the Arc Trials card this afternoon, which I have previewed for Race Sharp here.
My first bet this afternoon is speculative but I have been planning for a while to get Media Stream back onside once he gets a better surface. This son of Frankel was given by Pierre-Charles Boudot in spring as a horse to follow (see here) and has been unlucky to race four times this year on a soft surface – often with the going changing on the day or after decs. It is evident he needs a rattling surface and when he had it in May he made no mistake winning a Classe 1 at Saint-Cloud.
Far more is needed today of course, but in the ‘without the favourite’ market there is an opportunity to wager on him beating a fairly uninspiring group of French-trained colts. Pretty Tiger makes that market, has had a busy season and would prefer soft. Bubble Gift is coming off a break and Baby Rider is highly-rated on the back of beating Smile Makers at Saint-Cloud, who finished unplaced in a provincial listed yesterday afternoon.
Media Stream opened 33-1 in the regular market last night and although that has gone, I’m attracted to quotes of 16-1 and 14-1 in the without the favourite market (I’ve also seen 11-1 which is acceptable). Pilot Guyon is smart around Longchamp and showed on Friday he can be a tactical genius, winning on Situveux. Media Stream is no New Bay, Fabre’s last winner of this, but he could come alive in these conditions.
1.33pm Longchamp – 1pt ‘without the favourite’ Media Stream @ 16-1 (bet365) or 14-1 (William Hill etc.)
My second bet is in the Quinté handicap, which is a good each-way contest for UK bettors who will get four places a quarter and a only a very slim likelihood that there will be a non-runner.
The seven furlong toboggan course is primed for horses drawn low that can hold a position. Stakes-placed Makzeem appeals at 9-1 for the Hiroo Shimizu yard. Shimizu has been a hard trainer to follow this season, which several morning glories like Cloud Man failing to even win a race, but there are signs that it is all finally coming together at this part of the season – the yard has saddled five winners from their last eight starters, including surprise Group race winner Esope.
This half brother to Al Kazeem has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper from his last start and this will be his third start following a break. Drawn in two, I expect him to run into a place at the least this afternoon.
2.15pm Longchamp – 1pt each-way Makzeem @ 9-1 (all firms)
