A few conspiracy theories may do the rounds this afternoon if 11/8 favourite Raclette is pulled at the eleventh hour for the Prix Marcel Boussac and Fabre’s other two, Fleur D’Iris and Zellie, fight out the win.
With the rain continuing to tip down in Paris this morning, it looks long odds-on that Raclette will be scratched and instead run in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket, a race previously won by Fabre’s Miss France before she tasted 1000 Guineas success.
I’m keen to get ahead of the inevitable carnage in the betting markets and chance Oisin Murphy’s ride Zellie at a general 10-1. That price would be subject to a 40p Rule 4, meaning you are in effect taking 6-1 in the ‘without Raclette’ market, which makes lots of appeal (and is actually available to back in the w/o fav market with bet365 this morning).
Zellie is battle-hardened and amongst a moderate bunch of French juveniles, has really caught the imagination with an electric turn of foot. She’s raced 5 times, won a Listed in July at Deauville on very soft ground and ran a great second in the prep race for this last month – the Group Three Prix d’Aumale.
The Prix d’Aumale was a very warm Group Three for the grade and that was acknowledged by Jean-Claude Rouget, who saddled the fourth, Silver Lining. Ferland was talking up the third, Bahasa, beforehand (we tipped her on here) and the sixth, Txope, has since won a Listed in Germany well.
Zellie’s rider Hugo Besnier was under orders to give her a patient ride with the Boussac in mind. She forfeited plenty of ground as she rattled home around the field to take second – very impressive given that she was last with 1.5 furlongs to go.
Fleur D’Iris is half Zellie’s price and that looks justified given the 2.5kg differential between the fillies on ratings. However I think Zellie can reverse the form with an enterprising ride from Murphy this afternoon.
1.15pm Longchamp – 1pt win Zellie @ 11-1 (bet365, or 10-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook)