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Race Five at Lyon-Parilly is a 10 furlong contest for three-year-olds that haven’t won a Class 2 contest or been placed in a Listed since April.
There are nasty 2kg penalties for winners of warm maidens or several smaller races totalling €13,500 since that time, which could make all the difference in a race where the favourites are all rated around 39.0.
Alerio was a taking winner of an early season Longchamp maiden for unraced three-year-olds and you can see the case for him at 5-1. A reproduction of that effort would see Francis Graffard’s runner go close, but I’m put off by the penalty and he’s been off the track since a gelding operation back in June. I’m sure connections would be happy with a placed effort, so I’m looking elsewhere.
Woodstone is a multiple handicap winner and like Alerio, is a son of Alderflug. He was well-beaten at a short price in a Dresden Listed race last month on faster ground and would prefer softer conditions.
Plesant Jane is well-bred and priced at 3-1 for Fabrice Chappet who does well at this track. She finished close behind a good yardstick last time, Antelope Canyon, and certainly looks deserving of a rating around 40.0. I see the case the press are making for her, but her penalty may have been missed and she is easily passed over.
Two Face was agonizingly beaten on his second racecourse start when tipped up on Race Sharp at a big price. He made no mistake at Clairefontaine last time, making all in maiden company to beat a couple of fair horses.
Peter Shiergen’s stable jockey heads to Doncaster this afternoon to ride Novemba so I’m not put off by the booking of Cristian Demuro, who can employ aggressive riding tactics from time to time (eg. Stay Foolish and Laguna Beach at Deauville last month).
Narrowly escaping a penalty for his maiden win, he won with a bit up his sleeve and if he can progress a couple of pounds on his 39.0 rating, he will be tough to reel in. He should give us a great run for our money at 9/2.
1.07pm Lyon-Parilly – 1pt win Two Face @ 9/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill, Bet Victor, Coral, Befred, Boylesports, Sporting Index etc.)
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