The Classe 3 contest at Marseille-Borely looks a competitive heat, in fact, not far off being a handicap with most horses racing off 57kg and rated 40.0.
Like most conditions races in France, the penalties are based on having won similar races but good performances in handicaps are exempt.
I therefore think the connections of Winter Warmth should consider themselves fortunate to not carry a 2kg penalty here, having won a fair handicap at Fontainebleau last month when lumping top weight of 60.5kg off a mark of 40.0.
Now rated 44.0, she probably isn’t that good but the form is stacking up. She beat Regalien that day who then ‘won his side’ at Chantilly on his next start, rated 37.0.
Winter Warmth found the company too hot at Longchamp a fortnight ago but ran a respectable fifth. Today’s trip of 8.5 furlongs will suit on that evidence and her 6-furlong speed will be handy around this tight turf track.
Everything looks set for a big run, though I will keep it to a 1pt bet as she has had 11 runs since October without a break.
Elsewhere Mishgar looks ready to win again in this grade and looks the one for the forecast for the in-form Rouget team.
12.22pm Marseille-Borely 1pt win Winter Warmth @ 100/30 (most firms but William Hill are 7/2)