The conditions at Marseille are very testing this morning but I’m getting involved in Race Three where I think one has been dramatically overlooked in the markets and newspaper predictions.
Chantilly raider Tigrr is on offer at 9-1, a big price based purely on the fact that he comes out level with 7/4 joint-favourite Dar Toungi on weight-adjusted ratings and just 2lbs behind the other favourite Amedras.
Tigrr handles these conditions, can race prominently which is an asset at this course and has the services of Barzalona in the saddle. He potentially lacks a touch of class to win today, but comes here a fresh horse having raced just once officially since April. He was gelded in the summer and showed no ill effects when returning to win a schooling race at Chantilly last month with ease.
Tigrr was beat on his reappearance at Longchamp but the form reads well – he was beaten three lengths off level weights by Titanium, who would be a warm order if lining up in today’s contest. Crucially, Tigrr receives 4kg from the big two today due to the conditions of the race which I think is massive on this ground.
His trainer described the Longchamp run as a reappearance, despite the schooling race 10 days beforehand. If he improves a couple of pounds from that run I think we’ll get a really good run for our money this morning at 9-1.
I wouldn’t be surprised if either of the front two won this, but it is a concern for Amedras’ supporters that he was beaten in a weaker race last time when he was the only horse from his stable to make the long trip to Bordeaux. Dar Toungi handles soft ground but his trainer Jerome Reynier has told the Paris Turf that he may not be at his best on this tacky end-of-season surface.
11.30am Marseille-Borely – 1.5pt win Tigrr @ 9-1 (bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill or 17/2 available elsewhere)