The 5.10pm at Saint-Cloud this afternoon is a 10-furlong handicap for modest three-year-olds.

Cream Ice has been put in as the 10/3 favourite on the basis of some recent placed efforts and is the choice of Christophe Soumillon, who is enjoying a rich vein of form this month. There is no reason why she cannot run well again, but she is winless from four attempts on this mark and her only career win was in a claiming grade.

My best bet of the weekend comes in the form of Lord Monchablon, who having raced just four times, is one of the most unexposed in the field. The 10k bargain buy was unraced at two, he had three quiet runs this year and then exploded to life last month on the back of a gelding operation. The son of Dutch Art finished strongly over a mile in this same grade to take fourth on his handicap debut – and due to the French system is able to compete off the same mark.

The fourth doesn’t tell the whole story though – he was beat just two noses for second! Stepped up two extra furlongs today, he shaped as if he would relish this trip and although his full brother Zarwaan (rated 109 at his peak) was effective between seven furlongs and mile, I’m happy to give Lord Monchablon’s connections the benefit of the doubt.

The booking of Race Sharp contributor Theo Bachelot is a sign of intent and I think Lord Monchablon will be well-backed in the minutes before the off. Bachelot is still in with a shout in the champion jockey race and will be extra hungry after a recent ban.

5.10pm Saint-Cloud – 1.5pt win Lord Monchablon @ 10-1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet Victor & Betway)