The 1.35pm race at Chantilly this afternoon is a conditions event for older horses who failed to place in black type races last year. As it often the case with the French races with creative conditions, it means that punters need to decipher the form amongst the horses who are firmly on the downgrade, such as today’s 11/8 favourite Intellogent, and those on the upgrade, such as our selection here Red Dynamite.
Winner of just three of his 18 starts to date, Intellogent has been frustrating for Fabrice Chappet – who has been throwing everything at him, including headgear, trips abroad and a gelding operation. On the face of it, his form with Bugle Major and Goya Senora reads fine, but he is probably only running to the high 30s, doesn’t put everything on the line and his Tail End Charlie tactics makes him a hostage to fortune.
Harmless is an obvious each-way shot here with Pierre-Charles Boudot on board. He’s finished 1st and 4th on his two starts over this course and distance in more valuable races, but the very fact he dipped back into claiming company last September tells you that he probably reached his ceiling several months ago. At 3/1 he makes no appeal whatsoever.
4/1 Garlingari has been off for almost three years and could not be trusted to build on his Pornichet comeback. Oppose in this company – the trainer has won just two races since the start of last September.
Red Dynamite is the only mare in the field, but she carries our money at 11/1. In receipt of 5lb from the favourite Intellogent, this Czech raider has just five starts to her name and her piece of form at Lyon last time gives her a sporting chance of a minor upset here.
Only making her racecourse debut in the spring of her three-year-old season, she won her first two starts in Prague and has been gradually brought along with a view to targeting better races in France, just like her more illustrious stablemates Troizilet (races in the opener today) and Nagano Gold.
Over half a furlong less than this trip today she ran the 85-rated Semser to a head at Lyon – who may well have improved from a move to Graffard from Varian’s. Red Dynamite had behind her:
- Kiaz Apapa – 3rd – won a Lyon conditions event since and now rated 37
- Snag it – 4th – won a Lyon conditions event since, with a Lady Bamford-owned Dubawi mare in 2nd
The fact Red Dynamite has been supplemented here is a tip in itself and she looks good value to maintain her progression and at least come in the first three.
1 point each-way Red Dynamite @ 11/1 (bet365)
PS. Semser himself is worth following but the fact he is now listed out of training is a concern.