A nose.

That’s all there was at Marseille yesterday to prevent trainer Bruno de Montzey from streaking clear for winning 2yos this year and fillies going 11-2 up on colts.

Still, Oulalah‘s win for Jerome Reynier and the colts takes the score to 10-3, pulling one back for the colts.

Fillies have been dominant so far from equal representation. Two of the three juvenile contests to have been staged at Chantilly’s speed track have resulted in fillies completing the tricast spots.

The following factors have been cited as possible reasons by commentators for fillies having won 77% of 2yo races this season:

  • Juvenile fillies are perceived as less valuable, requiring a quicker return to connections before a possible early retirement to the breeding sheds
  • Fillies are more developed in the spring of their 2yo season and are slightly well-in on their 3lb sex allowance

Despite the take-out on the PMU, you could just blindly bet all fillies for €1 win stakes and your €55 investment would have returned a handsome €131.50.

Or, there may not be as much in it as the scores suggest. The share of fillies in the each-way places falls to 59% across these contests – far more even.

It’s all very well looking back at things which have happened, but are there any insights from the table that can help inform our betting over the coming weeks?

  • The fillies’ dominance is unlikely to last
  • De Montzey, Reynier and Guyader are worth following in the coming  days – particularly if Reynier’s are at the head of the market
  • Geldings are probably worth avoiding – all three to have run have lost
  • Headgear seems to a be a big negative when the wraps come off the juveniles – two have won to date (7%)
  • Rossi has plenty of ammo but has told Race Sharp readers his best juveniles will be seen only later – look out for when Mangoustine hits the track
  • Bettors need to adapt – in the first period of 2020 juveniles, following lockdown, Didier Guillemin and Jean-Claude Rouget saddled 5 and 6 winners respectively between 11 May and 31 June, but are winless this year. The tide could turn very quickly though and we know Guillemin likes Bullish Ball and Making Moovies.

The coming two-year-old races are:

  • 2.30pm Fontainebleau today
  • Chantilly next Monday
  • Bordeaux and Marseille Borely next Tuesday
  • Lyon Parilly next Thursday

We know the Lyon Parilly juvenile form needs to be taken very seriously, as it was the springboard for Different League’s win in the 2017 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. The €27,000 Class 2 race looks a serious contest and will give us an idea about the strongest spring formlines. Entries feature the following winners of the above races: Anterselva, Josejosephine, Have A Good Day, Sam Blaster and Lesslepasser.