On Monday morning, the going stick reading from Longchamp measured 3.4 – good to soft. With rain forecast this week for Paris, analysts are predicting that most races on Arc Sunday will be raced on soft ground, between 3.5 and 3.7. As they will begin racing on fresh ground, it stands to reason that the Opera (Race 5) and Foret (Race 7) will be raced on the softest ground of the day.

After we recently enjoyed a glittering Arc Trials card this month on fast ground, we ask, which horses on Arc Sunday will enjoy softer conditions? Here is a soft ground yankee to get readers started:

Ebro River

Ebro River has bags of speed and certainly looks to be a beneficiary of the Group One Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere being reduced in trip to seven furlongs. He showed up well in the the National Stakes and the winner Native Trail could be a future champion. Longchamp’s seven furlongs will be easier than the Curragh and connections will be optimistic about their colt who has a perfect 3-3 record on ground described as either soft or yielding.

Sibila Spain

Had things dropped a bit differently, we could be talking about a filly here that was seeking to emulate Treve in completing a Prix de Diane and Prix de l’Arc double. Sibila Spain is known to prefer soft ground and her trainer regularly advised caution ahead of her big summer targets on faster ground. After a mid-summer break, Sibila Spain made a devastating return in a Listed at this course and now looks a strong contender for the Prix de l’Opera. Odds of 12-1 have to be taken immediately.


Soft ground lover Trueshan makes plenty of appeal this weekend given the likely conditions. Trueshan most recently scored in the Goodwood Cup and also romped home by over seven lengths last autumn in the stayers’ contest on Qipco British Champions Day. 11/4 is short but we know his arch rival Stradivarius was beaten both at Ascot and Longchamp last autumn in soft. Unfortunately Hollie Doyle will miss the plum ride through suspension.

Glass Slippers

Yorkshire-trained runners seem to farm the Prix de l’Abbaye and although the draw will play a big part in Sunday’s sprint, the soft conditions augur well for Glass Slippers. The 2019 Abbaye winner was second to Wooded last year in soft conditions but then won the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. She is by soft ground influence Dream Ahead and if it keeps raining in Paris it will be a nightmare scenario for 2-1 favourite Suesa. The race could be set up between Glass Slippers and Winter Power.