This preview was first published at 9.00am on Friday 19 August. Prices were correct at the time of publication.
As we near the end of the Deauville meeting this month, attentions now turn towards the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe weekend on 1-2 October 2022 in Paris. The big race certainly has an open feel to it at the moment as it’s 5-1 the field and both of Charlie Appleby’s aces from 2021, Adayar and Hurricane Lane, have had troubled seasons. We run our eye over the latest running plans and assess the antepost value today.
Joint top-rated amongst these on 124 with Pyledriver, this Japanese raider was promoted to the top of the antepost betting following Desert Crown’s injury news. He’s completed the same older horse double in Japan as the legendary Deep Impact, has speed to burn and plenty of stamina. He goes straight to the Arc now and connections are currently deciding whether to base him in Deauville or Chantilly. The one to beat but doesn’t appeal as an antepost proposition.
Would surely blow these apart if connections allow him to take his chance, but that appears very unlikely.
Undoubtedly a brilliant filly and although she holds a popular formline with the Arc winner from last year, I’m not that taken by her profile. Will need to improve again to land the Arc, but that’s possible.
7-1 Torquator Tasso
Definitely not just a swimmer, as the 2021 Arc hero showed by taking 2nd behind Pyledriver in the King George last month. Runs at Baden-Baden next month with Frankie Dettori on board. Despite landing what looked to be a good renewal last year, I feel that the ground must have either gone wildly against the likes of Tarnawa by race time and/or he delivered his challenge down a faster part of the track. Looked overpriced for Ascot last month but a shade underpriced now for his Arc defence.
Both jockey and trainer believe Vadeni is best over 10 furlongs on good ground and so an Arc bid is off the cards. The trainer is set on Al Hakeem instead.
A shock winner of the King George at 18-1 last month, he is reported in good form at the moment and heads straight to the Arc. Possible winner in an open year but doesn’t inspire.
An eye-catcher in the Prix du Jockey Club, he was a good winner of the Grand Prix de Paris and now goes for the Irish Champion Stakes before the Arc. Possible winner but will find it tough against this opposition.
Winner of the Fitzdares Royal Whip Stakes this month, connections may prefer to remain at 10 furlongs to enhance his stud value.
20-1 Hurricane Lane
Disappointing this year and hard to fancy.
20-1 Al Hakeem
Likely to be France’s best chance. He wasn’t the most impressive winner of the Group Two this week at Deauville but connections hold him in high regard and he goes straight for the Arc. Dismissed.
20-1 Do Deuce
A brilliant winner of the Japanese Derby (watch the replay on Youtube here), Do Deuce looks a fair bit overpriced in the antepost lists today and looks a great investment. He will land in France early next month and then has the potential to shake the market up dramatically with a prep run in the Prix Niel. Rated 120 on IFHA ratings and benefiting from the three-year-old allowance, the owner has a dream to provide Yutaka Take with an Arc winner and he looks to hold outstanding claims if he can transfer his form to Europe.
Kizuna and Makahiki both won the Japanese Derby and went on to win the Prix Niel. Both started around the 6-1 mark for the Arc itself and I think Do Deuce has the potential to start even shorter for the Arc based on how highly he is thought of by Christophe Lemaire, who told the French press last month that Do Deuce was his pick of the Japanese raiders. Jockeys aren’t always the best judges but Lemaire should have a fair idea as he’s been Japan’s leading rider for the past five seasons!
Unlike both Kizuna and Makahiki, Do Deuce was the champion juvenile colt in Japan and we’ve not tended to see them make up into Arc contenders. Contrail had a similar profile but never left Japan.
In an open year, I think Do Deuce should be half his current odds and I expect that he will have a fairly easy task in the Prix Niel on September 11th. Now is the time to back him.
Brilliant Irish Derby winner heads straight to the Arc. Place claims.
25-1 New London
Travels well through his races and appeals as a potential spoiler here for the top team. Tough ask after the St Leger and perhaps one for 2023.
25-1 Verry Elleegant
Not entered and she has plenty of alternatives.
25-1 State Of Rest
Tried over a mile last weekend and likely to be aimed at Australia again.
Clipped in by bookmakers following her place yesterday behind Alpinista. Could be Ryan Moore’s ride and one for minor honours on the day with bookmakers paying four places.
5/2 with local firms in Germany to win the Grosser Preis von Baden next month, he isn’t entered in the Arc and is therefore not an appealing bet at this stage.
Unlikely to run here and is instead building to the Champion Stakes at Ascot.
33-1 Free Wind
Not entered and has alternative options both at Ascot and at Longchamp in October.
50-1 Deep Bond
Winner of the Prix Foy last year, he has a stamina profile and looks held by Titleholder on their last two runs. No Longchamp prep this time.
My first bet back in April for this year’s Arc, Fenelon looked better at Clairefontaine this month and is a horse that needs more racing, according to his trainer Nicolas Clement. I would have wanted to have seen more by this point, but he could still be a spoiler on the day and I look forward to seeing him measure up against Botanik, Stay Foolish and Glycon in the Grand Prix de Deauville.
66-1 Stay Foolish
Runs in the Grand Prix de Deauville and is Christophe Lemaire’s Arc ride this year. Not fancied.
2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Antepost – 1pt win Do Deuce @ 20-1 (Pari Match, Bet Victor, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Betfair Exchange or 16-1 generally)
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