Two bets on the card at Chantilly today, starting with Nao Da Mais in the third race (1.50pm). The next bet will be posted before 8.45am.
Quite simply, this horse is way too big in the market. He opened up at 9-1 last night, which has now gone, but there is still 6-1 available and really, he should be an odds-on shot.
A four-time Group 1 winner in Brazil, he won the Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini (Gr1) in 2019, which is the South American equivalent of the Arc. He came over to France in the summer, and was showing enough in the autumn for connections to give him an entry in the Hong Kong Vase in December.
That didn’t happen, and he was ultimately well held on his French debut, in a 1m4.5f Listed at Deauville that month. However, he went nicely enough through the race, which was far stronger than this class 3 (as you would expect), and I assume he was working well afterwards, as he ended up with an entry in the $5 million Sheema Classic, entries for which were made in late January.
Just last week, Smaga was saying how well the horse is working and that the decision whether or not to run in Dubai has yet to be made. To put it into context, today’s favourite has an equivalent UK rating of 75, gives Nao Da Mais 10lbs (including Megane Peslier’s claim) and his recent wins have both come in claimers.
This isn’t a cast-off, either – Brazilian billionaire Benjamin Steinbruch retains ownership of the horse and, though not everything he has sent to France in the past has worked out, this is the best of them on form…and a couple did go on to run at a very high level in Group company (including Gr.1 placed).
It is baffling that none of the French journalists even have him finishing in the first two, and I can only imagine that is why he is currently the price he is. On form, he really shouldn’t be odds-against.
1.50pm Chantilly – 2pts each-way Nao Da Mais @ 6-1 (PaddyPower, Betfair, 9/2 with Skybet, 4s elsewhere)
The concluding handicap at Chantilly (4.20pm) looks fairly competitive, but I really liked Dojo‘s win at the course last time and he still looks to be on a great mark.
He has a good draw, hails from a bang in-form yard and I thought he was value for more than the winning margin last time. A half-brother to Group 3 winner Devant and by an excellent stallion in Le Havre, he surely has the potential to rate a good deal higher than his current French mark of 32 and I’d have him as favourite today.
4.20pm Chantilly – 1pt each-way Dojo @ 17/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair, 7-1 Skybet, Betvictor)