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We have three selections selections today, one from Ayr, one at Wolverhampton and one at Windsor.
Tip 1 – 2.10pm Wolverhampton
Our first selection comes in the 1m4f three-year-old handicap at 2.10pm. The obvious starting point is the Roger Varian trained Mushirif. The Varian yard could not be in any better form with their last six runners all winners. The market has not missed Mushirif and his initial mark doesn’t look overly taxing. It would not be a surprise if he won this. Nevertheless, I felt his last run at Bath was underwhelming and the form is suspect so I’m prepared to look elsewhere.
Out Of Reason has a lot to prove on the back of two lacklustre performances on turf. He is, however, extremely interesting on the strength of his all-weather form previously. Narrowly beaten over the extended mile on this course by a better-fancied stablemate in October, he now runs off the same mark (71). His next run at Kempton can be upgraded as he was given far much to do. That race had more depth than he faces today.
Out Of Reason has to prove he stays this trip but there is plenty of encouragement to be taken from his pedigree. The dam was a dual-winner over 2m and she was better on an artificial surface. His two best performances have come on the all-weather, so there are reasons to believe he can return to form today.
2.10pm Wolverhampton – 1pt Out Of Reason 7/2 general
Tip 2 – 2.25pm Ayr
Hildenley looks to have potential for improvement in the 2.25pm Ayr in a moderate handicap. Starting life out in a bumper at Kelso in April, he travelled sweetly to point. He didn’t appear to stay and weakened steadily in the final three furlongs.
Returned to the level, he had three quick – albeit very moderate – runs in novice company sent off at big prices on all three occasions. Making his handicap debut at Newcastle, he travelled strongly in the lead until the 2f point where he appeared to get outpaced as the winner swept by. It looked as if when he headed he would have got swamped by the rest of the field but he stuck on willingly to battle on for third.
The winner and second in that race have both gone on to score subsequently. A solid piece of form for the grade. There is significant optimism for this step up in trip based on his pedigree. The dam won over a stiff 9f and she herself was a half-sister to a number of winners over 1m2f-1m4f.
This isn’t an overly strong contest and Hildenley makes appeal at the current prices.
2.25pm Ayr – 1pt win Hildenley 7/1 general
Tip 3 – 5.05pm Windsor
Our final selection of the day comes in the opener at Windsor. Sovereign State comes with a huge health warning attached. He virtually refused to race last time at Chepstow and needs to put those antics firmly behind him. So there are considerations here to take on trust.
In spite of that, he is one of the few in this field that is proven on ground softer than good. He was also a significant market mover at Chepstow that day, better was clearly expected but his race ended at the start . If returning to the form of his Bath run in May he would hold every chance. Sovereign State finished a couple of lengths ahead of today’s favourite Glamorous Crescent in that event. Glamorous Crescent had excuses on that occasion and is favoured by today’s weights but the price different between the two is too big.
Sovereign State would benefit from a generous gallop here and given this is an apprentice race, that’s a distinct possibility. He has one of the better apprentices riding him in Grace McEntee. Sovereign State makes appeal, despite the risks, at the current prices.
5.05pm Windsor – Sovereign State 1pt win 7/1 general
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