Francois Rohaut’s speedy filly Suesa looks set to carry all before her at Royal Ascot next month and rates as an attractive wager at 8/1 to land the Commonwealth Cup. The daughter of Night of Thunder is unbeaten in four starts to date and despite achieving a few column inches and appearing on Sky Sports Racing, she still appears underappreciated in the betting markets.
In what currently looks to be an uninspiring renewal of the race, Suesa has the potential to be a major springer in the market in the coming days.
Speaking exclusively to Race Sharp this week, now the dust has settled on her stunning Prix Texanita win from last week, Francois Rohaut said:
We are more excited than ever to run Suesa at Royal Ascot. We are preparing the difficult trip and doing all we can to ensure she gets there, in spite of the travel complications.
The jockey booking is also really complicated for us, given the respective quarantine rules in the UK and coming back to France. Olivier Peslier has the ride and it will be his decision, especially given that the Suesa ride would rule him out of the Prix de Diane at Chantilly two days later. I would completely understand if he prefers to stay in France and we would take a UK-based jockey instead. The filly is so brilliant that the choice of jockey is less of a concern to me.
In terms of the ground, Suesa has won three times in ground either very soft or heavy. However her best win came in the Prix Sigy on good ground. She is therefore very versatile but over six furlongs at Ascot I would prefer good ground.
Here we look at the reasons to be confident behind the Suesa challenge at Ascot:
1. Suesa is almost top on official ratings
Following the BHA’s update to official handicap ratings yesterday, the current ratings of the market principals in the Commonwealth Cup (prior to raceday weight allowances) reads:
Supremacy – 118
Suesa and Campanelle – 113
Alcohol Free – 112
Dragon Symbol – 111
2. Rohaut’s yard is in blistering form
It’s always easier when you have a few Dubawis in the yard, but Rohaut has won six of his last eight in France and is current firing on all cylinders.
— Ecurie Rohaut (@RohautRacing) May 25, 2021
3. Suesa has had the perfect prep
Ignoring last year’s race due to the Covid build-up, three of the five winners of this race had two prep races coming into this. Suesa’s 2-2 record in 2021 reads perfectly, as does Measure of Magic‘s.
By contrast, current favourite Campanelle was forced to miss her seasonal reappearance.
4. Top GB sprinter Supremacy is on a retrieval mission
Supremacy’s rating of 118 has not been revised as his run in the Pavilion Stakes was that bad. It would be surprising if he bounced back to a level to win this and there are already mixed signs about this Mehmas crop of three-year-olds building on their flashy juvenile careers.
5. We’re unlikely to see a big Guineas horse in here
A top Guineas horse can blow the betting open if aimed here for a cheaper Group One than the St James’ Palace Stakes. Ten Sovereigns did just that when sent off at even-money for this in 2019.
Lucky Vega and Poetic Flare are more likely than not to stick to a mile for now. I would be less worried about Alcohol Free turning up here, but she also has the option of the Coronation Stakes at this meeting.
6. Suesa beat the best French sprinters pointless
Last year the future Abbaye winner Wooded was priced at 6/1 on the back of his win in the Prix Texanita, so I cannot see why Suesa is available at a longer price in a weaker renewal. She put up a better performance in the prep than Wooded, is rated higher and then benefits from a 3lb sex allowance.
Suesa carried a penalty and routed not only Bavaria Express, who was entered in the Commonwealth Cup, but Louliana, who was under consideration for Royal Ascot when we spoke to trainer Frederic Rossi last month.
— Equidia (@equidia) May 17, 2021