RaceSharp Tips – Thursday 30 July – Goodwood
Great to get off the mark with Ottoman Emperor doing the business for us at 9/1 (11/1 SP). The St Leger looks the next logical target for him. Other selections ran deplorably and way below expectations.
The selections today come from Goodwood. The remainder of the domestic action is low quality and no wildly appealing betting heats.
Tip 1 – 1.50pm Goodwood
Our first selection runs in the ‘marathon’ contest. Smart Champion has been backed in to favouritism this morning. He finished a close third in this contest this year and is now attractively weighed. Plus, his promising rider takes off a further 5lb. His credentials are solid. A caveat would be even this trip might be on the sharp side for him!
Platform Nineteen is the one with the most potential and he returned from a mammoth absence looking better than ever. Elysian Flame has taken his form to a new level this campaign. None of the three have been missed by the market.
We will side with Withhold. Out of sorts on his first two starts this campaign, he bucked that trend at Newbury last time. Travelling supremely well behind the leaders, he had to wait for a gap and got stopped in his run approaching the final few furlongs. Having to wait and then quicken again, particularly for a stayer, is never ideal and that performance can be upgraded.
Only once he has ventured beyond 2m in handicap company when pulverising the field in the Cesarewitch back in 2017. He is a relentless galloper and this demanding test could suit him. Likely to lead or sit handy and I hope he will just keep galloping. He has the assistance of Oisin Murphy in the saddle and Roger Charlton has his horses in fine form.
1.50pm Goodwood – 1pt win Withhold 14/1 most firms
Tip 2 – 3.00pm Goodwood
At both Doncaster and Newcastle this season, Orbaan has suggested that there are races in him off this kind of mark. He had to wait for a gap in the Lincoln and in a small field handicap at Newcastle, I think he should have won.
Orbaan ran no sort of race last time at Sandown against a number of these that re-oppose. That is a big concern but that is factored in to his price.
I have a suspicion that this track where he can be buried amongst runners in big field handicap will suit him. At the prices he is worth chancing.
Interestingly, his only run to date at Goodwood was on his fourth career start in the Sussex Stakes when in the care of Andre Fabre. Despite finishing last of eight, he was only beaten six lengths. At one point he looked like he could be competitive. With hindsight, it was no surprise he was outclassed but this test is much more suitable.
3.00pm Goodwood – 0.5pt each way Orbaan 40/1 most firms with 5 places minimum
Tip 3 – 4.45pm Goodwood
Our final selection comes in the two-year-old nursery with the Nigel Tinkler trained Dandy Dinmont.
Well fancied for his debut at Chantilly back in April he was far too green to do himself justice. Dandy Dinmont put that effort firmly behind him on his second start at Beverley. A big eyecatcher that day, outpaced early, he made sustained headway out wide. Ultimately he was put in his place by the smart winner (won again since) but showed considerable promise.
On his final start in novice company he travelled powerfully through the race. He had to wait briefly for a gap before being tenderly handled with hands and heels riding going down by only a neck.
Improving with every start, he looks to be starting his handicap career off a more than workable mark. A bigger field and the likelihood of a strong pace should suit him. This is a competitive heat but he can prove better than a mark of 71.
4.45 Goodwood – 1pt win Dandy Dinmont 12/1 generally