UK Horse Racing Tips – 28 September
A really competitive card at Wolverhampton this evening and I have one bet on a filly that I think is overpriced.
Tip 1 – 6.30pm Wolverhampton
Zwelela has been a model of consistency this year and has held her form all season long. It could be that she will go off the boil soon and need a break but, at the prices, she looks well worth chancing in open looking contest.
I think she’s really interesting dropped back to 7f. I’ve not been convinced a mile is her best trip and dropping back to 7f seems a sensible move. As does keeping her to the all-weather. The first of her two victories came when running over 7f on handicap debut at Lingfield back in March. She followed that up in this grade (0-85) over course and distance in April.
She’s only had four starts on artificial surfaces and the two occasions she was beaten that was by a length and two lengths respectively. Her latest run came over a mile at Kempton behind a progressive rival – Spirit Of The Bay – who has since won again. The second, Alezan, has also upheld that form. Degree was a good few lengths behind Zwelela that day but is considerably shorter than her in the betting.
Her draw in 11 (10 with the non-runner) may be difficult as she can pull and run too freely. If she can get a nice position early, then she can outrun her odds. The wide draw is evidently factored in to her price but there isn’t any significant bias. We will, however, probably know our fate early on if she doesn’t manage to get a good position.
She potnetially doesn’t have an enormous amount in hand of her mark but these look to be ideal conditions and, at the prices, she looks the bet in this race.
6.30pm Wolverhampton – 1pt win Zwelela 11/1 general