Now dropping into a 0-55 for the first time, today could be the day for Mostaqqer, who is a big price at Chelmsford this afternoon (2.25pm).
The four year old showed a fair level of form in Irish maidens last term, staying on over 7f on more than one occasion and finishing his time there with a mark of 70.
Since being purchased by current connections, he has run four times over 7f and once over 6f (last time), either missing the break or being steadied and held up on each occasion. His second and third runs for this yard came in 0-85 and 0-80 handicaps (despite a mark of 67 and 63), while it was no surprise the drop in trip was against him here last time, were he was once again dropped in and could only keep on at one pace in the straight under hand riding.
Interestingly, he was given two entries for next week after declarations for this race were made, which opens up the possibility of running under a penalty – both are 0-70s and are over 1m and 1m2f, indicating connections are confident that this is more his trip.
Backing 10-race maidens comes with risks attached, but Mostaqqer has dropped 19lbs in five outings since December and the 12-1 on offer makes the risk worthwhile.
2.25pm Chelmsford – 1pt win Mostaqqer @ 12-1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, 10-1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365, Boylesports)
Later on the card, I like the look of Michael Bell’s Realist, who is capable of making a winning reappearance in the 1m2f handicap (5.07pm).
The son of Camelot is bred to come into his own this year and hails from a really strong middle-distance family. He ran in some good maidens last year, showing ability on more than one occasion, but just looking the type to need time.
Fifth at Yarmouth on his final start in 2020, the two ahead of him have bettered that form on the All-Weather since, while the sixth is now rated 79, the seventh 95 and the eighth won an AW maiden in good style next time.
Gelded over the winter, there is a fair chance he is very well-treated off a mark of 65 and Michael Bell does well with his three year old handicappers on the All-Weather (and is 18% with his 3yos here in the past five seasons).
5.07pm Chelmsford – 1pt win Realist @ 13/2 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, 6-1 elsewhere)